Liam Fox
Image: © Chatham House via Wikimedia Commons

60-40 chance at a ‘no deal’ Brexit, trade secretary says

What does that mean for Britain? Depends who you ask.

Liam Fox, who's in charge of international trade in the government, says the odds that Britain will come out of the EU without any kind of special arrangements or deal are now 60-40.

What it means: Depends who you ask. A hardline pro-Brexiteer will say that's a good thing - no EU regulations whatsoever, freedom to create our own individual deals with different countries, a 'clean break'.

Others will say even if you believe in Brexit, it's still a bad thing. Outside of the EU, Britain falls under the rules of what's called the 'World Trade Organisation', who basically govern trade between countries who don't have special deals. Under their rules, you still have 'tariffs' or taxes on trade, and customs inspections. Implementing those in time is going be tough.

Remainers will say a no deal Brexit is a bad thing in and of itself. We'll be out of all EU regulations but will obviously still need some rules for things like aircrafts, medicines, nuclear materials, food - so we'll have to write all those new regulations ourselves, in time.

They'd also probably point to analysis by the International Monetary Fund which says Britain will see a 4% drop in GDP if no-deal happens, which means the total value of all the goods and services produced in the UK would drop by 4%. According to BuzzFeed, a government research paper came to pretty much the same conclusion a few months ago - but they didn't publish it because, as put by the anonymous government source, 'it's embarassing'.

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Reader Comments

  • RW

    Your right to a degree. You mentioned “the wandering Jew”.

    I elaborate that the Jewish people, historically have tended to migrate almost exclusively to locations that are economically and culturally vibrant already. I would speculate that Jews have thrived in these places and have often improved the bounds of their economies and knowledge base.

    You can also ask; how many massive entertainment conglomerates, Nobel winners or billionaires has Isreal developed? If Jews are so capable, why isn’t Tel Aviv the Rome of our time?

    Jews are successful because they value education, maintain a strong social cohesive, they actively monitor and have a good sense for Zeitgeist wherever they are and they carefully choose the places they settle and congregate themselves heavily in these choice locations.

    But most importantly (haulocaust increased the importance of this aspect), they actually designed their culture for success. They not only attend Harvard, they use what they learned to better the group as a whole. With as much, they studied intricate networking systems, adapted to it and in many cases improved upon them. (See how Japan acquired Aegis warships and made them better).

    Of course there is nothing wrong with any of this. It’s when you elaborately gain disproportionate power in any society where you would stand out, you must take care when attempting to make a society better (Civil Rights movement) and rewriting that society all together (mass immigration). Ask blacks in China, Mexico, Philippines or India how much opportunity they have? Go to businesses owned by their American diaspora and see how many blacks they hire. Go to Silicon Valley and see how many East or South Asian tech workers wish they could work with more black people. California might work as a state, but as a nation, I think your rolling the nuclear dice here. I hope we can succeed as a tolerant pluralistic superpower but at this stage in human societal development, it’s a pipe dream.

    And if Jews really are the icon for success, they would see that fundamental human successes happen over generations. Just look at the rest of the planet? Are we ready?